Chen Jinhai, a joint -stock company, recently studied and published a research report "Economic Revolution, and the volume and price tendency to rise". This report gives Southern Airlines a buying rating at the current stock price of 6.1 yuan.

Southern Airlines (600029)

Economic rebound, the aviation industry is expected to usher in the cycle recovery

Aviation cycle is highly related to the inventory cycle.The inventory cycle in 2024 is expected to pick up: first, the inventory is nearly 2 years, and it is expected to end; the other is the forward -looking index PPI. Since July 2023, it has risen to rise and fluctuates at a low level; the third is the growth rate of inventory to zero.It has risen slightly since January 2024.Once the inventory cycle is rebounded, it is expected to last for about 2 years. The growth rate of aviation revenue and gross profit margins are expected to recover, that is, the cycle recovery is ushered in.During the ups and downs of the inventory cycle, aviation stock prices often rise.

Southern Airlines' stock price is large, and the market value of the single machine is low

Southern Airlines has low valuation and large elasticity.In the two rounds of bull markets between 2006 and 2007 and 2014-2015, the largest increase in A-share price of the three major airlines reached 9-13 times and 4-6 times.Among them, Southern Airlines has risen, reaching 11.8 times and 6.2 times, respectively.Among the major listed airlines, the stock price of Southern Airlines in 2010-2024 was higher than most peers.Considering the potential demand for aviation and the continuous growth of the number of aircraft, we chose to use the "market value/aircraft number" to valuation. Southern Airlines's single -machine market value is only 99 million yuan/frame, which is far lower than most peers.At present, Southern Airlines has low valuations and large stock price elasticity. In the future, economic recovery is expected to obtain excess returns.Surat Wealth Management

Southern Airlines' volume and prices have risen, and it is expected to continue

Economic recovery, the volume and price of Southern Airlines tend to rise.In 2023, Southern Airlines's domestic routes reached 0.54 yuan/customer kilometer, an increase of 4%year -on -year, rising slightly.In Q1 in 2024, Southern Airlines's passenger rate reached 83%, and its passenger rate in India reached 84%, an increase of 5%and 6%respectively.We believe that with the recovery of the economy in the future, the demand for aviation is further released, and the volume and price of Southern Airlines are expected to continue to rise.

Adjust profit forecast

Considering the influence of factors such as the number of passengers after the epidemic, the slow international line recovery and other factors, the 2024 predicted net profit returned to the mother to 6.95 billion yuan (the original prediction was 14.13 billion yuan).100 million yuan (originally forecast of 23.33 billion yuan), introduced a net profit of 16.73 billion yuan in the 2026 forecast.Considering the stock price of aviation stocks in the uplink of the inventory cycle in history, the stock price performed well, and maintained a "buy" rating.

Risk reminder: The epidemic is repeated, the economy continues to be sluggish, the cost of fuel oil exceeds expected, and the inflection of aircraft has accelerated.

Based on the research report data released by the Star of Securities in the past three years, the research team of Wu Chenzhang, Huachuang Securities, has a deeper research on the stock. The average accuracy accuracy in the past three years is 79.94%.100 million, the prediction PE based on the current price is 16.19.

The latest profit prediction details are as follows:

In the last 90 days, the stock has given rating a total of 13 institutions, buying 9 rated rating, and increasing 4 rated rating; the average target price of the institution has been 7.2 in the past 90 days.Nagpur Stock

The above content is organized by the Star of the Securities according to the public information, which is generated by the algorithm (online information is calculated No. 3301240019). It has nothing to do with the position of this site. Please contact us if there are problems with data.This article is data finishing, and does not constitute any investment advice to you. Investment is risky. Please decide carefully.Agra Wealth Management